EducationCase study 09

Learning Intelligence Platform

A weekly risk model replaces the termly review meeting, giving advisors across an 80,000-student group a ranked intervention list before the gap becomes unrecoverable.

Data EngineeringPredictive ModellingDecision Intelligence
80,000students across the group covered by one risk model
16 → 1 wkintervention review cycle, term to weekly
42%relative gain in flagged students moving to on-track

The challenge

Across 14 campuses, the group already collected plenty of student data. It just couldn't act on it in time:

  • Attendance, assessment, and engagement data sat in five separate systems with no shared student key
  • Risk was reviewed once per term, by which point half the term was already lost
  • Advisors relied on gut feel and whichever spreadsheet was most recently updated
  • No group-wide definition of 'at risk' — each of 14 campuses scored differently
  • High-risk students were typically identified after a second failed assessment, not before

Manually reconciling the five source systems into a single review took roughly three weeks each term.

How it works

A weekly model instead of a termly meeting

The fix wasn't a better spreadsheet — it was a standing pipeline that scores every student every week:

  1. 01

    Established a canonical student ID reconciling records across the SIS, LMS, attendance, and assessment systems

  2. 02

    Trained a gradient-boosted risk model on three years of historical outcomes: attendance decay, assessment trend, engagement drop-off

  3. 03

    Standardised a single group-wide risk definition and threshold across all 14 campuses

  4. 04

    Automated a Sunday-night scoring run that refreshes every active student's risk band

  5. 05

    Delivered a ranked Monday-morning intervention list to each campus's advising team

  6. 06

    Closed the loop by logging which interventions were taken and feeding outcomes back into the model

What we built

Key capabilities

01

Weekly, not termly

Every student's risk band refreshes overnight, every week — advisors act inside the term instead of after it.

02

One risk language, 14 campuses

A single group-wide threshold replaces 14 informal, incompatible ways of calling a student 'at risk'.

03

Ranked, not raw

Advisors get a prioritised list of who to reach first, not a data dump to interpret.

04

Learns from what worked

Logged interventions and their outcomes feed back into the model, so the ranking improves term over term.

Before vs after

What changed for advisors

Review cadence
Termly → Weekly
Data assembly
~3 wks manual → Automated overnight
At-risk definition
14 campus variants → 1 group standard
Flagged-to-on-track rate
24% → 34%
Intervention timing
After 2nd failed assessment → Before the first

Business impact

What it changed

42% relative improvement in recovery

The share of flagged students who moved to on-track by term end rose from 24% to 34% — a 42% relative gain, sustained across two consecutive terms.

Advisors act inside the term

A Monday-morning list, refreshed weekly, replaced a termly meeting that arrived after the window to help had mostly closed.

One definition, 14 campuses

The group can now compare risk and outcomes across campuses for the first time, instead of reconciling 14 local conventions.

Technology stack

Gradient-Boosted TreesStudent Data WarehouseWeekly Batch ScoringAdvisor Dashboard

The data existed all along. What changed was the cadence — weekly instead of termly turned a lagging report into a working intervention system.